Roughly a third of Florida’s land is currently in agriculture, but development and, to a much lesser degree, sea level rise are projected to result in the loss of about 120 acres of agricultural land a day – or almost 45,000 acres a year – between now and 2070.
The loss of as much as 2.2 million acres of agricultural land over the coming decades will impact the important contributions provided by agriculture to Florida’s economy and quality of life and threaten the conservation values that many of these lands provide.
According to the University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Science (IFAS), the direct economic contributions of the agriculture, natural resource, and food industries in 2019 included $106 billion in sales and 1,279,638 jobs.
Florida’s agricultural lands also provide essential ecosystem services including protecting water supply and quality, providing flood control, supporting climate resilience, sequestering carbon, harboring wildlife, promoting outdoor recreation, and more.
Agriculture 2040/2070 is intended to shed light on the significant threats facing these lands, and what can be done to lessen impacts over the coming decades.
A GIS-based analysis undertaken by the University of Florida Center for Landscape Conservation Planning, this study explores possible impacts of development and sea level rise on Florida’s agricultural lands and their conservation values. Building on the earlier Sea Level 2040/2070 study, it incorporates more comprehensive data on agriculture.
By 2040, a 23% increase in population, with 4.9 million more residents than 2019
By 2070, a 57% increase in population, with 12.2 million more residents than 2019
Sea Level Rise
By 2040, 1 million acres of land lost to inundation, including almost 7,500 acres of agricultural land
By 2070, 1.7 million acres of land lost to inundation, including 41,000 acres of agricultural land
By 2040, nearly 1 million more acres of developed land, an increase of 17%
By 2070, nearly 3.5 million more acres of developed land, an increase of 64%
By 2040, approximately 523,000 acres of agricultural lands lost to development
By 2070, more than 2.2 million acres of agricultural land lost to development
By 2040, 206,000 acres in the Florida Wildlife Corridor (Corridor) lost
By 2070, 1.2 million acres in the Corridor lost
(compared with Sprawl Scenario)
5 million more acres of proposed protected natural land (including the Corridor)
2.4 million more acres of proposed protected agricultural land (including the Corridor)
By 2040, 270,000 fewer acres of developed land, a saving of about 4%
By 2070, 1.3 million fewer acres of developed land, a saving of about 14%
Current Florida Agriculture by General Category
Projected Loss Under NOAA Three-Foot Sea Level Rise Model
Projected Loss to Development Under 2040 Sprawl Scenario
Projected Loss to Development Under 2070 Sprawl Scenario
Projected Loss to Development Under 2040 Conservation Scenario
Projected Loss to Development Under Conservation 2070 Scenario
2020 Florida Future Land Use Maps
Current Florida Agriculture Classified As Non-Agricultural or Agricultural in 2020 Future Land Use Maps (FLUM)
Current Florida Agriculture in the Florida Wildlife Corridor
Current Florida Agriculture in 2070 Aggregated Conservation Priorities
Current Florida Agriculture Intersecting Aggregated Conservation Priorities
Current Florida Agriculture Intersecting Florida Natural Areas Inventory (FNAI) Rare Species Habitat
Current Agriculture Supporting Climate Change Resilience
Protected and Unprotected Current Florida Agriculture
Unprotected Florida Forever and Rural and Family Lands Program Projects
Unprotected Protection Opportunities Model